Do Ukrainians Still Prefer Self-Defense Against Russia At Any Cost?
Abstract
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This research note replicates and extends the conjoint experiment Dill, Howlett and Müller-Crepon's (2024) conducted on Ukrainians' attitudes toward the costs and benefits of self-defense against Russia's aggression in July 2022. Between December 2024 and January 2025, we administered the original and a modified survey experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2'580 Ukrainians, sampled from largely the same locations as before. We still find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Yet, resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory, while still sizable, has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians, less war-affected respondents, and those more trusting in Ukraine's president are comparatively more willing to resist Russia. War-affectedness of locations is not associated with changes in attitudes since 2022. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support in Ukraine for a potential political settlement.
Abstract
This research note replicates and extends the conjoint experiment Dill, Howlett and Müller-Crepon’s (2024) conducted on Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the costs and benefits of self-defense against Russia’s aggression in July 2022. Between December 2024 and January 2025, we administered the original and a modified survey experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2’580 Ukrainians, sampled from largely the same locations as before. We still find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Yet, resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory, while still sizable, has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians, less war-affected respondents, and those more trusting in Ukraine’s president are comparatively more willing to resist Russia. War-affectedness of locations is not associated with changes in attitudes since 2022. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support in Ukraine for a potential political settlement.
Publication
Unpublished Working Paper