Do Ukrainians Still Prefer Self-Defense Against Russia At Any Cost?
Abstract
PDF
This note replicates and extends a conjoint survey experiment on Ukrainians' attitudes toward the costs and benefits of self-defense against Russia's aggression, conducted in July 2022 (Dill, Howlett and Müller-Crepon, 2024). Between December 2024 and January 2025, we presented the original and a modified experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2,580 Ukrainian citizens, sampled from largely the same locations as in 2022. We find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory meanwhile has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians, less war-affected respondents and those more trusting in Ukraine's president are comparatively more willing to resist Russia's aggression. Locations' exposure to the war is not associated with changes in Ukrainians' attitudes. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support for a potential political settlement in Ukraine.
Abstract
This note replicates and extends a conjoint survey experiment on Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the costs and benefits of self-defense against Russia’s aggression, conducted in July 2022 (Dill, Howlett and Müller-Crepon, 2024). Between December 2024 and January 2025, we presented the original and a modified experiment with stronger cost treatments to 2,580 Ukrainian citizens, sampled from largely the same locations as in 2022. We find continued categorical resistance to Russian control. Resistance to accepting political neutrality or conceding territory meanwhile has weakened. Ethnic Ukrainians, less war-affected respondents and those more trusting in Ukraine’s president are comparatively more willing to resist Russia’s aggression. Locations’ exposure to the war is not associated with changes in Ukrainians’ attitudes. Our findings help us better understand how the attitudes of conflict-affected populations evolve over time and shed light on public support for a potential political settlement in Ukraine.
Publication
Unpublished Working Paper